Category: Ideas

Is Peak Oil Real? A List of Countries Past Peak

Only 14 of the 54 oil producing nations in the world are still increasing their oil production. The era of cheap oil is definitively over, as shown below.

Is peak oil real? The BP Statistical Review of World Energy provides the data needed to answer this question. Using the 2009 edition, I have compiled a list of all oil producing countries and regions in the world, along with the production status of each, ordered by year of peak production. BP groups minor producers into categories like “Other Africa”, and “Other Middle East”, and that notation is used here. All production numbers are quoted in barrels/day.

Country Peak Prod. 2008 Prod. % Off Peak Peak Year
United States 11297 7337 -35% 1970
Venezuela 3754 2566 -32% 1970
Libya 3357 1846 -45% 1970
Other Middle East 79 33 -58% 1970
Kuwait 3339 2784 -17% 1972
Iran 6060 4325 -29% 1974
Indonesia 1685 1004 -41% 1977
Romania 313 99 -68% 1977
Trinidad & Tobago 230 149 -35% 1978
Iraq 3489 2423 -31% 1979
Brunei 261 175 -33% 1979
Tunisia 118 89 -25% 1980
Peru 196 120 -39% 1982
Cameroon 181 84 -54% 1985
Other Europe & Eurasia 762 427 -44% 1986
Russian Federation 11484 9886 -14% 1987*
Egypt 941 722 -23% 1993
Other Asia Pacific 276 237 -14% 1993
India 774 766 -1% 1995*
Syria 596 398 -33% 1995
Gabon 365 235 -36% 1996
Argentina 890 682 -23% 1998
Colombia 838 618 -26% 1999
United Kingdom 2909 1544 -47% 1999
Rep. of Congo (Brazzaville) 266 249 -6% 1999*
Uzbekistan 191 111 -42% 1999
Australia 809 556 -31% 2000
Norway 3418 2455 -28% 2001
Oman 961 728 -24% 2001
Yemen 457 305 -33% 2002
Other S. & Cent. America 153 138 -10% 2003*
Mexico 3824 3157 -17% 2004
Malaysia 793 754 -5% 2004*
Vietnam 427 317 -26% 2004
Denmark 390 287 -26% 2004
Other Africa 75 54 -28% 2004*
Nigeria 2580 2170 -16% 2005*
Chad 173 127 -27% 2005*
Italy 127 108 -15% 2005*
Ecuador 545 514 -6% 2006*
Saudi Arabia 11114 10846 -2% 2005 / Growing
Canada 3320 3238 -2% 2007 / Growing
Algeria 2016 1993 -1% 2007 / Growing
Equatorial Guinea 368 361 -2% 2007 / Growing
China 3795 3795 – Growing
United Arab Emirates 2980 2980 – Growing
Brazil 1899 1899 – Growing
Angola 1875 1875 – Growing
Kazakhstan 1554 1554 – Growing
Qatar 1378 1378 – Growing
Azerbaijan 914 914 – Growing
Sudan 480 480 – Growing
Thailand 325 325 – Growing
Turkmenistan 205 205 – Growing
Peaked / Flat Countries Total – 49597 – 60.6% of world oil production
Growing Countries Total – 32223 – 39.4% of world oil production

Only 14 out of 54 oil producing countries and regions in the world continue to increase production, while 30 are definitely past their production peak, and the remaining 10 appear to have flat or declining production [1]. Put another way, peak oil is real in 61% of the oil producing world when weighted by production. Since 2008 capped a record run for oil prices, most countries and oil companies were trying all-out to increase production. While a handful of producers (think Iraq) might be limited by above-ground factors, the majority of producers simply couldn’t do any better in 2008 [2].

The evidence of the demise of the cheap oil era has become insurmountable. In the face of the highest oil prices on record, the great majority of the world’s oil producers were incapable of taking advantage and producing more oil. Many nations including the US saw their oil production peak decades ago – there simply is no turning the clock back. This list shows that we are relying on a small number of countries to keep providing cheap oil. We need to move faster to alternatives and greater energy efficiency, before the last fourteen peak as well.

* More information on these countries:

  • Russian Federation – Russia’s oil production collapsed by the early 90’s as the Soviet Union collapsed, but despite a decade of growth, Russia’s own oil execs don’t think the old peak can be surpassed.
  • India’s production appeared to plateau in 1995, and has stayed within a steady range since. The EIA forecasts Indian oil production to remain flat or decline slightly in the near future.
  • Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) hit a production plateau in 1998, though current production is still very close to 1999 peak levels.
  • Other Central & South America – The remaining countries of the Americas hit a production peak in 2003, though it’s still too soon to know if this will be final peak.
  • Malaysia has been on a production plateau since 1995, and the EIA projects flat or falling production.
  • Other Africa – Oil production in much of Africa is potentially impacted by above-ground constraints, so it’s definitely possible that production will rise here. It will rise from a low base of only 50,000 bpd however, and may not have much impact on total world production.
  • Nigeria is impacted by domestic insurgencies in its oil-producing regions, and may be able to lift production if the political situation improves.
  • Chad’s oil production history is too short to definitively identify a peak in production, but the drop-off since 2005 has been dramatic.
  • Italy has been on a production plateau for over 10 years, and it’s unlikely that a mature economy is significantly under-exploiting its resource potential.
  • Ecuador’s production grew rapidly until 2004, but has leveled off and declined somewhat since then.

[1] To be considered past-peak, a producer’s current (2008) production has to be at least 10% less than its best year, and the best year must have occurred prior to 2005. Some countries’ production has been artificially constrained by political and other non-geological considerations. But in some of these cases, it will be difficult to pass an old peak because decades of depletion have occurred since that peak. Iraq peaked in 1979, making it all the more difficult to pass that now.

[2] While OPEC maintains formal production quotas, it is widely believed that only Saudi Arabia had true spare capacity in 2008, while all other OPEC nations were producing at capacity. The truth is unclear, since OPEC nations do not provide detailed reserve statistics for their oil fields.

Total has created its own short list of oil producers past peak, and Wikipedia has a list here.

Posted on by praveenghanta 13

The True Cost of Gun Ownership

The gun industry generates a total economic loss of $15B per year in the United States.

Guns are a part of American culture, and guns are also a part of the economy in the US. While not a large industry, the small arms and hunting industries contribute roughly $29B annually to the US economy [1]. While many industries have externalities (think pollution), the gun industry’s externalities are particularly damaging: 31,000 deaths and 70,000 injuries per year [2].  From an economic standpoint, the cost-benefit of US gun ownership and the gun industry can be measured by weighing the economic benefit of the gun industry against the economic loss caused by premature deaths and injuries.

What is the annual economic loss associated with 31,000 deaths and 70,000 injuries? By looking at loss of income alone, each gun death can be valued at roughly $1.4M, or $43 Billion in total lost income [3]. A 1994 study published in JAMA concluded that medical costs from gun injuries cost another $2.3B, or $4B today including inflation [4]. The total economic costs of $47 Billion per year from gun industry externalities thus greatly exceed the economic benefit of the industry!

Perhaps this is not surprising. Guns were invented as military weapons, and while hunting and recreation are part of today’s industry, guns’ primary use remains human combat. In the 20th century, the arms industry split into two industries: a hugely profitable defense industry which sells only to the government, and a tiny small arms industry accessible to ordinary American citizens. Despite causing a $15B loss every year to the American economy, the American small arms industry exists because it is protected from its liabilities by the Second Amendment and its political allies.

Can this situation can be improved? The gun industry has thus far successfully resisted efforts at further regulation, and the NRA and other organizations have created a potent political alliance to prevent a change in the status quo. Eventually, an industry with huge negative externalities has to improve its behavior as attitudes shift, or public sentiment and politicians will force the issue (the oil and tobacco industries come to mind). The gun industry would do well to cooperate with reasonable regulations that decrease its negative side effects, or it risks harsher regulations down the road.

[1] The gun industry’s estimated total value in 1999 was $24B, or $29B today when adjusted for inflation.

[2] According to the CDC, there were roughly 31,000 deaths involving firearms (including homicides, suicides, and accidents), and  70,000 non-fatal injuries related to guns annually.

[3] Gun death rates peek in the 18-24 age range, and fall sharply after 30, according to the CDC (select Age under Output Group). Assume that the average person killed by a gun loses 35 years of productive life (from 35-70) . 35 years * US per capita income of roughly $40,000 equals $1.4 Million per person. No NPV adjustment is needed, because gun deaths are cumulative over time – last year’s gun deaths contribute to this year’s losses as well.

[4] This study concludes that the medical costs associated with firearms injuries were roughly $2.3B per year in 1994. Assuming a health care rate of inflation of 4% over the last 15 years (lower than the real rate!), this $2.3B equals $4B in 2009 dollars.

Posted on by praveenghanta 32

Career Rankings by ROI and salary

A college education has many rewards, but it is primarily an investment, and its return can be calculated by measuring the increase in salary that it brings. While college has many intangible benefits that are difficult to measure, the NPV and IRR of future income can be used to measure its rate of return. Unfortunately, very few comparisons have been done to rank career paths on these metrics.

In the table below, I build on my previous research by ranking 22 different career paths by return on investment. The careers are ranked by Net Present Value and rate of return (methodology explained at bottom). The career rankings take into account numerous factors for each career, including the length and expense of education, salary potential, and unemployment risk.

Career ROI Rankings:

Career Average Salary NPV After-tax earnings (lifetime) Rate of Return
1. Law $124,230 $186,200 $4,709,000 15%
Attorneys rank high on the list since their education is complete just three years after college, and they can step right into six-figure salaries.
2. Chemical, Petroleum, Nuclear Engineering $85,000 $174,100 $3,271,000 19.3%
Petroleum and Chemical engineers step into starting salaries over 60k, leading to a high return on a 4-year education.
3. Pharmacy $98,960 $173,305 $3,833,000 16.5%
Pharmacists typically must complete a six year program before starting work, but high demand for pharmacists enables them to move directly into $90k per year positions upon graduation.
4. Computer Science $83,160 $170,000 $3,335,000 19%
Computer science grads start work immediately after college with salaries above 50k, giving them a fast payback on their investment, but lifetime earnings potential is lower than in some professional fields.
5. Medicine – Specialist $190,000 $148,000 $5,994,000 12.75%
Doctors have always enjoyed good incomes, but their educational investment is so high that it reduces their educational ROI more than is commonly realized.
6. Accounting $69,500 $144,900 $3,038,000 17.9%
Accountants can start work right after college, and their pay increases considerably once they’ve completed their CPA certification.
7. Stockbroker $90,470 $125,600 $3,194,000 16%
Stockbrokers start with a low salary, but can build up to a comfortable 90k with time and effort.
8. Civil / Mechanical Engineering $75,200 $112,000 $2,860,000 16.0%
Civil and Mechanical engineers tend to lag engineers in other fields in terms of income and career ROI.
9. Medicine – Primary Care $161,500 $108,900 $5,246,000 12.2%
Primary Care doctors have an educational investment almost as high as medical specialists, but do not receive commensurate salaries.
10. Physical Scientist (Astronomy, Physics, Chemistry, etc) $78,100 $108,600 $3,177,000 14.7%
Physical scientists have to complete eight years of education before moving into a full time research or academic position.
11. Airline Pilot $148,410 $106,241 $3,279,000 13.75%
Airline pilots must work for years at low paying regional air or charter jobs before making it to a major carrier, but the final payoff is a relatively high salary and reasonable working hours.
12. Nursing (RN) $62,480 $106,170 $2,598,000 16.75%
Nurses can finish training in as little as three years, and earn relatively good salaries right from the start, with job prospects virtually anywhere in the country.
13. Police Officer $50,000 $78,000 $1,748,000 9.6%
Police Officers are well compensated relative to the length of their education, but take risks not associated with most other careers.
14. Biological / Life Scientist $69,175 $71,720 $2,812,000 13.3%
Biological scientists earn lower salaries than their colleagues in physical sciences, but have to undergo the same amount of training.
15. Financial Analyst $81,700 $54,000 $3,042,000 12.20%
While completing an MBA can nearly double a financial analyst’s salary, the high tuition and lost earnings diminish the rate of return.
16. Insurance Underwriter/Appraiser $57,795 $54,000 $2,342,000 13.20%
Insurance underwriters and appraisers enjoy a relatively steady income after college.
17. Architecture $73,650 $50,000 $2,710,000 12.2%
Architects have decent salaries in the long run, but they must first complete a five year Bachelor’s program, and then spend several years as interns before becoming full-fledged architects.
18. Human Resources Specialist $56,740 $25,000 $2,164,000 11.50%
HR Specialists start working quickly, but their salaries don’t rise as significantly as in other careers.
19. Graphic Design $45,340 $18,220 $1,994,000 11.2%
Graphic Designers can start work right after finishing college, but competition for positions is high, keeping salaries down.
20. Psychologists $70,000 $11,000 $2,373,000 10.5%
Psychologists’ long training period and low salary compared to MDs decreases returns significantly.
21. Teaching (K-12) $52,450 -$6,630 $1,930,000 9.6%
Teachers are not particularly well compensated in the US, and since their starting salaries are particularly low, the NPV of an investment in a teaching career is actually negative.
22. English (PhD) $60,000 -$15,250 $2,165,000 9.25%
At the bottom of the rankings are Humanities majors. If an English or Humanities PhD candidate tells you that they didn’t go into it for the money, they’re not lying: this career path has a negative return on investment in income terms.

Annotated spreadsheet with all calculations: HTML | XLS with formulas

Definition of Terms:

NPV: This is the Net Present Value of the student’s investment in education, based on a 10% discount rate. 10% is a common rate of return expected for long-term investments, and it helps provides a fair benchmark of the value of each career path.

IRR: This is the Internal Rate of Return of the educational investment. IRR tends to favor shorter time horizons, so shorter educational paths like engineering are rewarded when measured via IRR.

Lifetime Earnings: This is a simple sum of the lifetime after-tax earnings of each career path from age 18 through age 65.

Methodology:

All salary data was taken from the BLS May 2007 Occupation Employment and Wages Estimates. The BLS data measures only base salaries, and does not include bonuses, profit-sharing, or other similar forms of compensation in its estimates. College was assumed to cost $20,000 per year (this sounds low, but is an average for public and private colleges, after all scholarships, grants, and student work are taken into account). Professional school costs, and graduate and resident stipend data were sourced variously, and are noted in the spreadsheet. Inflation at 2% and progressive taxation are also accounted for in the calculations.

The rate of return for each field was calculated by determining the IRR for each field, taking into account the cost of college and measuring total after-tax gains from age 22 to age 65. The NPV of each career path was also calculated with a discount rate of 10%. Finally, lifetime after-tax earnings were calculated as a simple sum to provide another measure of earnings potential.

Posted on by praveenghanta 21

Stimulus Plan Ideas

I’ve been thinking about President-elect Obama’s proposed stimulus plan lately, as it represents one of the larger policy decisions of the coming year. Most economists agree government stimulus that some form of is necessary to prevent a deflationary economic environment, and to improve economic sentiment. But what criteria should we use to judge fiscal stimulus spending, and are there any good ideas out there that haven’t been considered?

Stimulus Plan Criteria:

1. Speed: Any stimulus spending needs to occur quickly in order to boost the economy. Projects which don’t hit the ground til 2010 don’t meet this criteria.

2. Spent, Not Saved: Ideally, 100% of any stimulus funds should be spent on consumption of goods and services to kick-start the economy. Tax rebate checks, particularly to the wealthy, perform poorly in this regard because a larger percentage of the funds will be saved.

3. Return on Investment: Projects with a measurable return on investment, whether in economic growth or otherwise, are preferable to spending that has no longer term benefit.

With these criteria in mind, here are some fresh ideas that I think deserve consideration:

1. Convert school buses and bus fleets to CNG. This would decrease diesel emissions near children, and also reduce US dependence on foreign oil, while providing an immediate boost to the auto manufacturing sector. Particulate pollution kills tens of thousands of people annually – why not spend to improve public health and reduce oil dependence at the same time? $25 Billion would enable the conversion of half the nation’s school bus fleet.

2. 100% tax credits for energy efficiency in homes and small businesses. Instead of handing out tax rebate checks, which aren’t spent in full, why not pay homeowners and businesses to improve energy efficiency? President-elect Obama has made a similar proposal regarding federal buildings, but tax credits would lead to faster spending since consumer and small businesses can move more quickly. $50 Billion would retrofit 50 million of America’s single family homes with energy saving modifications.

3. Increase funding for basic science research. The great economic booms of the 80’s and 90’s were driven by technological advances like the personal computer, the internet, and pharmaceutical technology, and these technologies had their early beginnings in basic research. Increasing basic research and grant expenditure at the NSF, NIH, DARPA, and other agencies would employ thousands of new college graduates and researchers while accelerating the path to future technological breakthroughs. Doubling the NSF and DARPA budgets would cost $10 Billion, while another $5 Billion would add to NIH’s budget.

Funding these ideas in total would cost $90 Billion. While federal spending at this level would crowd at private investment in normal circumstances, today’s circumstances have drastically reduced private investment across the board. If the Federal government is planning to spend close to a trillion dollars on stimulus, shouldn’t we fund high return projects like these?

Posted on by praveenghanta 0

We Need a Good Recession

“I believe if the credit markets are not functioning, that jobs will be lost, that our credit rate will rise, more houses will be foreclosed upon, GDP will contract, that the economy will just not be able to recover in a normal, healthy way.” – Ben Bernanke, Fed Chairman, Sept. 23rd, 2008

“that our American economy’s arteries, our financial system, is clogged and if we don’t act the patient will surely suffer a heart attack — maybe next week, maybe in six months, but it will happen.” – Hank Paulson, Secretary of the Treasury, Sept. 23rd, 2008

Even before testimony concluded yesterday on Capitol Hill, reports with headlines like “Bernanke: Recession Certain in Absence of Bailout” and “Bush Administration Tells Congress to Act Quickly or Risk Recession” hit the wire services. Both Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson stated clearly that a recession would occur if the proposed $700 Billion dollar bailout plan were not enacted. Similar threats of recession were used earlier this year when President Bush and Congress enacted a tax rebate stimulus program.

Let me ask a simple question: why is everyone so afraid of a recession? Recessions and boom times are both natural parts of the business cycle in market economies, and the United States experienced twenty recessions (including the Great Depression) in the 20th century alone. Economic downturns, with the associated bankruptcies and layoffs, help trim inefficient investments made at the peak of economic cycles, thus paving the way for the next round of economic growth.

The alternative to business cycles can be found in state-controlled economies, where inability to reallocate capital to new enterprises slows overall economic growth dramatically. Governments presiding over market economies also attempt to tamper with business cycles, and while intervention may soften the landing in a recession, it may also delay the recovery. Japan’s “lost decade” of the 90’s, where poor economic growth was the norm, resulted after Japan’s incredible economic boom of the 80’s. The extraordinary length of Japan’s recovery stemmed partly from the Japanese government’s inability to allow corporate and bank bankruptcies progress at the rate needed to clear out bad loans and start a new economic cycle.

The US would do well to heed Japan’s allegory. Ideally, any intervention in the financial markets should enable orderly collapse and restructuring of businesses overridden with bad debt. No one gains in a financial panic, but an unwinding of the excesses of the US housing bubble is inevitable. Creative Destruction is at the heart of the business cycle, it’s at the heart of the American economy, and it will be necessary in this cycle as well. Let’s not make it take longer than necessary.

Posted on by praveenghanta 4

What People Make III: Career ROI is as important as salary

What is the purpose of higher education? While a minority of college students have enough wealth to study as a hobby, college students generally view college as a step towards a career, with higher earnings potential as one motivation. But while a four-year college education generally has the same price tag regardless of degree, an individual’s future earnings potential vary widely depending on the degree chosen. Here is a partial ranking of careers, ranked by NPV and rate of return (details on the methodology at bottom):

Career ROI Rankings:

Career Average Salary NPV After-tax earnings (lifetime) Rate of Return
1. Law $124,230 $188,000 $4,825,000 15%
Attorneys rank high on the list since their education is complete just three years after college, and they can step right into six-figure salaries.
2. Computer Science $83,160 $184,000 $3,534,000 19%
Computer science grads start work immediately after college with salaries above 50k, giving them the fastest payback on their investment. Lifetime earnings potential is lower than in some professional fields, however.
3. Pharmacy $98,960 $168,000 $3,885,000 16.2%
Pharmacists typically must complete a six year program before starting work, but high demand for pharmacists enables them to move directly into $90k per year positions upon graduation.
4. Medicine $179,000 $151,000 $5,908,000 12.9%
Doctors have always enjoyed good incomes, but their educational investment is so high that it reduces their educational ROI more than is commonly realized.
5. Accounting $69,500 $148,600 $3,151,000 17.9%
Accountants can start work right after college, and their pay increases considerably once they’ve completed their CPA certification.
6. Airline Pilot $148,410 $125,000 $3,578,000 14.25%
Airline pilots must work for years at low paying regional air or charter jobs before making it to a major carrier, but the final payoff is a relatively high salary and reasonable working hours.
7. Nursing (RN) $62,480 $100,000 $2,633,000 16.3%
Nurses can finish training in as little as three years, and earn relatively good salaries right from the start, with job prospects virtually anywhere in the country.
8. Architecture $73,650 $54,000 $2,839,000 12.3%
Architects have decent salaries in the long run, but they must first complete a five year Bachelor’s program, and then spend several years as interns before becoming full-fledged architects.
9. Graphic Design $45,340 $24,850 $2,125,000 11.6%
Graphic Designers can start work right after finishing college, but competition for positions is high, keeping salaries down.
10. Teaching (K-12) $52,450 -$10,100 $1,986,000 9.4%
Teachers are not particularly well compensated in the US, and since their starting salaries are particularly low, the NPV of an investment in a teaching career is actually negative.
11. English (PhD) $60,000 -$14,000 $2,301,000 9.3%
At the bottom of the rankings are Humanities majors. If an English or Humanities PhD candidate tells you that they didn’t go into it for the money, they’re not lying: this career path has a negative return on investment in income terms.

Annotated spreadsheet with all calculations: HTML | XLS with formulas

Law, Computer Science, and Pharmacy majors take top honors in terms of career ROI, while (perhaps not surprisingly) artists, teachers, and Humanities professors come out on bottom. Doctors and airline pilots are further down the list than one might suspect, principally because they spend so many years in training before achieving high compensation.

Definition of Terms:

NPV: This is the Net Present Value of the student’s investment in education, based on a 10% discount rate. 10% is a common rate of return expected for long-term investments, and it helps provides a fair benchmark of the value of each career path.

IRR: This is the Internal Rate of Return of the educational investment. IRR tends to favor shorter time horizons, so shorter educational paths like computer science are rewarded when measured via IRR.

Lifetime Earnings: This is a simple sum of the lifetime after-tax earnings of each career path from age 18 through age 65.

More info on Methodology:

All salary data was taken from the BLS May 2007 Occupation Employment and Wages Estimates. College was assumed to cost $20,000 per year (this sounds low, but is an average for public and private colleges, after all scholarships, grants, and student work are taken into account). Professional school costs, and graduate and resident stipend data were sourced variously, and are noted in the spreadsheet. Inflation at 2% and progressive taxation were also accounted for in the calculations.

The rate of return for each field was calculated by determining the IRR for each field, taking into account the cost of college and measuring total after-tax gains from age 22 to age 65. The NPV of each career path was also calculated with a discount rate of 10%. Finally, lifetime after-tax earnings were calculated as a simple sum to provide another measure of earnings potential.

Posted on by praveenghanta 6

Doesn’t Everyone Want Financial Independence?

When something aggravates you at work, wouldn’t you like to be able to walk into your boss’s office and quit with no ramifications? That is the dream of financial independence – when a person has saved enough that he can meet all the needs of daily living through investment income alone. A whole industry has sprung up around the idea, with authors, talk-show hosts, and the like extolling the virtues of living on invested money. But is this really an achievable goal for most people?
Read the full entry (441 words) …

Posted on by praveenghanta 4

What happens to expiring milk?

What happens to perishable products (particularly milk) when it hits its expiration date at a grocery store? Do they just throw it out, or do they do find a more worthwhile use for it? This article implies that some expired foods have an afterlife, but I’ve read or heard elsewhere that expired milk is simply thrown out.

Why not buy milk from grocery stores on the morning of its expiration date, and sell it to restaurants, bakeries, and hotels that use large volumes of milk? Since these institutions use large volumes, they could use their daily supply up every day, thus ensuring no spoilage issues. If you could buy expiring milk for 50% off wholesale, and sell it for 75% of normal price, the margins are obvious.

Does anyone already do this? It seems like a simple, environmentally sound business idea. Maybe the logistics costs of gathering just a few gallons at each grocery store make this unworkable. Still, it seems like a reasonable idea… anyone know if this is already done, or why it wouldn’t work?

Posted on by praveenghanta 1

If you’re a Confederate, you’re not an American

Moving back to the South after living in the Northeast for many years, I immediately began to notice the far-increased number of Rebel flags aflight. Growing up in rural Louisiana, I honestly can’t remember seeing them that often. Now they seem more popular than ever, from the standard version down to purple-and-gold and other college-color-themed versions. I think many of those who fly the flag conflate it with both American patriotism and Southern pride, and it is that delusion I wish to address.

Confederates, I have a news flash for you: the Confederacy was the greatest threat ever faced by the United States of America, and by flying that flag you signal your disloyalty to the country of your birth. Many of you claim that it is a symbol of Southern pride and values, and indeed, the United States permits you the right to fly it and proclaim whatever meaning for it you wish. But historically, the Confederate flag regained popularity during the Civil rights movement, when it was placed atop the South Carolina statehouse and elsewhere in obvious retaliations against the cultural change taking place.

The Confederate flag was, and is, the symbol of a nation. By supporting that nation, a nation created expressly to maintain the practice of slavery, you show your allegiances are not with the United States of America. So for those who fly the CSA flag: you’re not patriotic Americans, you’re Confederates living in the past.

Posted on by praveenghanta 5