| Monthly Cost after AHCA Tax Credit (Plan cost as found on healthcare.gov, cheapest available plan) |
|||||||
| State | Age 20 | Age 30 | Age 40 | Age 50 | Age 60 | Family Ages 40,10,8 | Family Ages 30,30,5,3 |
| Oregon (Low Cost State, Zip 97035 Used) | Free ($112) | Free ($208) | Free ($234) | $35 ($327) | $160 ($493) | Free ($466) |
Free ($648) |
| Ohio (Medium Cost State, Zip 43004 Used) | Free ($121) | $12 ($216) | Free ($244) | $49 ($341) | $186 ($519) | Free ($487) |
Free ($677) |
| Nebraska (High Cost State, Zip 68010 Used) | Free ($131) | $66 ($274) | $59 ($309) | $139 ($431) | $323 ($656) | $33 ($616) | $105 ($855) |
The CBO estimates that 14 million Americans will lose Medicaid coverage, and that 9 million more will lose either individual or employer-based coverage.
[1] The 2017 ACA prices are a reasonable guide as the Trump administration plans to relax the essential benefits associated with plans, and to widen the max price differential between plans for young and old. The risk pool under the AHCA will also likely be healthier, as young, healthy Americans will be drawn into free AHCA plans – because they are free.
[2] Roughly 23% of the population is aged 19-34, and a 9% point drop in uninsured rate for this group in 2026, translates to a rise of 7m more insured Americans. A similar calculation for the 35-44 group yields another 2m insured Americans, while the 2.5% rise in uninsured among older Americans yields a loss of insurance for 2 million. The CBO appears not to contemplate that many of those losing Medicaid will receive tax credits sufficient to provide them with free catastrophic plans, as shown in the table above. This mitigates the Medicaid cuts to some extent.
[3] The original chart above can be found here at the CommonWealth Fund.
True Cost - Analyzing our economy, government policy, and society through the lens of cost-benefit 
One change to the AHCA I should note – the latest version ends the contribution of excess tax credits into HSAs for recipients. This is a very unfortunate change, because leaving it in place would have enabled many families to cushion the risk experienced under a high-deductible plan.