Peak Oil – I can’t wait!

What is Peak Oil, and why am I so excited about it? Peak Oil theory owes its start predominantly to the work of M. King Hubbert, who correctly predicted in 1956 that US oil production would peak in the early 70’s. Hubbert was a research geologist for Shell, and in his research noted a bell curve distribution in the rate of discoveries of new oil fields. He predicted that the later exploitation of these fields would follow a similar curve, wherein oil production would reach a peak rate at some point in time followed by a steady decline. While highly controversial, Hubbert’s theories proved correct in his own lifetime, and have spawned a generation of Peak Oil theorists who are predicting an imminent peak in world oil production.
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The Myth of Energy Independence

“We’ll grow our own energy right here in America, and stop sending our money to the Middle East!” This refrain has become very common in the US energy debate going on today. Coal producers are lobbying for increases or extensions to programs that subsidize the cost of turning coal into diesel fuel, and corn growers have successfully lobbied for a 51 cent-per-gallon subsidy on gasoline-ethanol blends (sometimes containing as little as 1% ethanol). Meanwhile, politicians proclaim that our dependence on foreign oil is a threat to national security.

Is the answer to America’s energy needs really to grow or drill it all at home? And would doing so help moderate the rapid rise in gasoline prices, and in energy costs as a whole? These questions deserve further review.
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Top Five Worst Subsidies

Anyone versed in basic economics knows that government subsidies are almost always a bad idea. To be sure, government support can be crucial in furthering basic research and other beneficial activities that for-profit corporations avoid. But it’s a sad reflection of America’s budget process that we continue to subsidize activities that are well established and often highly profitable. In other cases, we taxpayers distort costs through our subsidies, thus encouraging over-consumption of a subsidized good relative to an unsubsidized one.

While many articles on this blog have been devoted to the topic, I couldn’t resist – so here’s my top-five list of most-reviled government subsidies:
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Fatten us all with Farm Subsidies

This New York Times Magazine article does an excellent job of exposing how farm subsidies have contributed to obesity amongst Americans, and particularly amongst America’s poor.

In a nutshell, by subsidizing the overproduction of corn, soybean, and wheat, the American government drives the cost of these staples down, which in turn encourages overconsumption. All the extra caloric energy produced by America’s subsidized farmers gets translated into Twinkies, candy, potato chips, and myriad other junk – junk that interestingly offers far more calories per dollar than more healthy foods. The junk food fits perfectly into a low-income budget, which helps explain the paradoxical poverty-obesity correlation in the US.
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Is Private School Worth It?

The choice of school for one’s children is a very personal one, and is heavily influenced by one’s own childhood experiences. It’s probably true that most parents who went to private school themselves intend to send their kids to private school, and that most public-schooled parents intend to do the opposite. But leaving out for a moment considerations of prestige, status, diversity, and the like, is paying $20k a year for thirteen years of a top-notch private school worth it?
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Tax Pollution, Not Work

How could it possibly be a bad idea? Environmental pollution is the largest single economic externality faced by modern market economies like the United States. Households and companies alike do not suffer direct costs for their pollution, and therefore have no incentive to curtail it. Meanwhile we all suffer its negative effects, which include increased rates of asthma and respiratory illness, and also include rising temperatures worldwide.
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2006 Was a Good Year

Despite the bleak headlines about Iraq, conflict in Lebanon, and nuclear confrontations with both North Korea and Iran, 2006 was a good year globally. GDP growth in developing nations surged forward at a 7% pace, while overall global economic growth remained high at close to 4%. Long term economic growth is the only available means to decrease absolute poverty; in India, growth around 7% per year reduced overall poverty by 10% over the last decade. To be sure, much of developing nations’ current growth is owed to rising commodity prices, but in many nations this influx of revenue is being harnessed more effectively than in the past.
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America’s Broken Universal Health Care

The United States provides universal health care. Sound laughable? It’s true: all individuals in America, whether citizens, immigrants, or tourists, are entitled to government subsidized care in the event of medical emergency. While the uninsured may not be able to get a routine doctor’s appointment, they are guaranteed life saving surgery and medical intervention, regardless of cost. Indeed, care for indigents can occasionally run into the hundreds of thousands per year, as they repeatedly return to the emergency room for treatments of illness caused by chronic diseases like diabetes. The US spends roughly 75 billion annually on treating the nation’s 40+ million uninsured; the situation among alcoholics in Seattle has become so absurd that they are being given housing and routine medical care, since this decreases the cost of treating them in emergency situations.

Perhaps it is no surprise then that America spends a larger percentage of its GDP on health care than almost any other nation, and yet it lags on a wide range of health indicators, including overall life expectancy. How did such a situation emerge? Largely by accident, it turns out. In 1986, the EMTALA was passed by Congress, denying hospitals the right to refuse critically ill patients. Federal and state governments partially reimburse providers for costs incurred for this treatment through Medicaid and Medicare. Unfortunately, critical care is provided without any cost-benefit analysis whatsoever; it is considered a criminal act to withhold treatment from elderly, terminally ill patients, even if it would extend their life by a matter of weeks.

As US healthcare costs continue to spiral upward at rates often double and triple that of overall inflation, the situation becomes increasingly untenable. But what are the alternatives to America’s current system?

1. Remove required treatment burdens from hospitals, leaving the burden of care to individuals, charities, and local and state government.

2. Provide routine medical care to the uninsured, eliminating the treatment gap for the uninsured.

3. Require all Americans to buy insurance, or to pay a healthcare tax to pay for the implied insurance provided by emergency rooms.

4. Begin to consider rationing publicly funded health care based on cost-benefit analysis, taking into account a procedure’s likelihood of success, its cost, the patient’s age, and other factors.

Option 1 is politically infeasible for an industrialized nation, and is included only for completeness. Providing routine medical care to the uninsured, as in option 2, would expand America’s current system to be more similar to European systems of comprehensive universal public health care. Nations like the UK and Canada ration non-critical care within their systems in order to control costs; the very notion of health care rationing is anathema in the US currently, making public dialogue on public universal care close to impossible. Australia, meanwhile, has a hybrid healthcare system which includes public insurance for all while enabling private care to co-exist, potentially providing a model for US healthcare reform.

Massachusetts has begun a program similar to that outlined in option 3, in which all residents without insurance are required to purchase insurance or pay a tax to subsidize the emergency coverage that all residents receive. Poor residents are provided with assistance to pay for an insurance policy, enabling all residents to acquire coverage. This system provides the benefit of extending coverage across the population, while forcing everyone to contribute, thus averaging out costs across healthy and less healthy individuals. Since the system provides a net increase in medical coverage, however, it will result in increased costs over time.

This brings us to option 4, the unspeakable in the American health care dialogue: rationing. In practical terms, medical decision-makers find it difficult to discuss the notion of saving $100,000 by not performing a procedure, even if it has a 1 in 1,000 chance of success. Cost-benefit based rationing of care is not a solution to the problems of health care access. Rather, it is an eventuality that will have to be confronted, as public expenditure on health care cannot forever grow faster than the economy. Until then, America’s broken universal healthcare system will continue to plod along, destined to hit the wall when we just can’t find another dollar to keep 95 year-old vegetables alive another minute.

A Tax Cut for All

With the 2001 tax cuts beginning to expire in a few years, perhaps it is time to revisit them. Those tax cuts, along with a subsequent tax cut in 2003, cost roughly $150 billion per year in lost tax revenue. Tax rates were cut across the board, with a drop from 15 percent to 10 percent in the lowest tax bracket, and a drop from 39 percent to 36 percent in the highest bracket. A myriad of other tax breaks including a cut in taxes on dividends and capital gains combined to make one of the largest tax reductions in years. Now, with the tax cuts set to expire in 2010, Democrats argue that they be allowed to expire to reduce the deficit while Republicans argue that they should be made permanent. A recent Congressional vote over a minimum-wage increase succumbed to this battle, as Republicans attempted to tie the repeal of the estate tax to a minimum wage hike.

There is room for compromise on this issue, where all Americans can enjoy a tax cut without increasing current structural deficits. A reduction in the lowest federal tax bracket (for income below $10,000) from 10% to 0% would provide $1000 in tax relief for every full-time American worker, from the richest to the poorest. The elimination of the lowest tax bracket would lift more Americans out of poverty than a hike in the minimum wage, since it wouldn’t have the adverse affects on employment that a wage floor can have. If developing nations like China and India can do without an income tax for the poorest in society, can’t America? One caveat: giving $1000 in taxes back to all 145 million American workers would cost $145 billion annually.

How can America pay for a tax cut even larger than the last round? For starters, since the lowest tax bracket would be eliminated, the Earned Income Tax Credit could be largely eliminated as well. The EITC rebates $40 billion per year to the poorest families in America, but adds a large regulatory burden for both families and the IRS by requiring taxpayers to claim the credit, with the IRS auditing them to ensure eligibility. Eliminating the EITC could help pay for a large chunk of lowest-bracket elimination while lightening the tax filing burden for a significant percentage of the population. Next, allow the upper tax bracket and estate tax reductions to expire in 2010, adding roughly $100 billion to government revenue. Finally, make permanent the 15% tax rate on dividends and capital gains, providing investment tax relief for the middle class and wealthy. The 15% rate on dividends and capital gains costs $5 billion to government coffers, but provides an incentive to the investing class to support the overall tax package.

All this leaves a neat compromise in which all Americans get a $1000 tax cut, and upper-middle class and wealthy Americans get to keep low investment tax rates in return for pitching in on broader tax relief. The elimination of the lowest tax bracket and the EITC would also simplify tax filing for millions of Americans, from poor working class families to the elderly and part-time workers as well. US mid-term elections take place tomorrow; if the Democrats take the House, this sort of tax cut would be a welcome new idea for their platform. If the Republicans narrowly maintain control, a broad-based compromise tax cut for all might be just the kind of legislation they need to break the legislative logjam. Any takers?