Can Fuel Efficiency Save Us From Peak Oil?

With gas prices rising daily, Americans are focusing on energy issues of late, and Peak Oil is beginning to enter the common lexicon. Peak oil represents the moment of peak oil production on Earth, after which oil production will plateau and eventually decline. This does not mean that poof – one day the oil is all gone! Rather, it means that oil production growth will slow, and eventually become negative, causing ever higher oil prices until or unless demand also declines.

Many prognosticators now believe that an oil production peak is imminent or has already occurred. While optimists predict production growth for decades to come, and pessimists believe that oil production will soon crash, many forecasts suggest that oil production will soon plateau for a period before beginning to decline. This will indeed be the case if new oil exploration projects just manage to replace declining production in aging fields.

Can the world economy continue to grow if constrained by oil production of 85M barrels per day? The EIA (Energy Information Administration) has estimated that oil demand will grow to 120M barrels per day by 2025, with two-thirds of this total expected to be used for motor transport. These estimates are created using estimates of growth in total vehicle ownership and usage. But what about fuel efficiency? Worldwide vehicle fuel efficiency averages around 20 mpg today; what if this number could be doubled by 2030 using the latest technologies? Doubling worldwide fuel efficiency would reduce demand in 2030 from 120M barrels/day to 80M barrels/day, enabling significant growth in worldwide vehicle usage while keeping oil demand below current consumption! This assumes no fuel efficiency gains in industrial and other oil uses.

Hybrid cars on the market today get in excess of 40 mpg, and new innovations like the Toyota Prius plugin modification (100+ mpg) and the coming VW Golf diesel hybrid (70mpg) push the boundaries much further. Buses, trucks, and other large vehicles are also joining the party, with major shippers like Fedex and UPS acquiring efficient vehicles for their fleets. The lifespan of the average vehicle is 16 years in the US today, so it will take time for high oil prices to cause a worldwide fleet turnover. But the the market signal of high oil prices is unmistakable, with manufacturers like Ford announcing cutbacks in SUV production and a focus on smaller vehicles. And if fuel efficiency can get us from today to 2030, that buys a lot of time for an economic transition to more long-term energy sources.

Affording the American Dream, Then and Now

How many people do you know that can afford the American Dream? In the post-war America of the 50’s, the modern notion of the American Dream crystallized: families aspired to a single family home, an automobile (or two), and modern comforts like a television, refrigerator, and washing machine. These seem like modest goals now, until you consider that in the fifties, most families got by on a single income! What percentage of households today can afford a median-priced house, two cars, and common comforts on a single income, and how does that compare to yesteryear?

According to the Economic Policy Institute, the median family budget for a family of four was around $40,000 in 2004, including all major household expense categories and taxes paid. The EPI family budget must be adjusted for inflation, and to account for ownership of a home and two cars. Excluding housing and transportation, the EPI median budget would be roughly $33,000 in 2007 dollars. Two low-cost Honda Civics would add another $12,000 per year, and $1600 per month would pay for a US-median $200,000 house, for a total budget of $64,000 per year. The EPI family budget excludes entertainment, consumer electronics, vacations, and other discretionary spending. Padding the budget to $70,000 might account for these expenses. A family breadwinner making $70,000 per year is in the 88% percentile, making it clear why most families now get by on two incomes.

While it’s difficult to reconstruct an accurate family budget for 1950 using available data, data on the change in housing prices and median incomes can be used as a starting point. Median home values rose 151% from 1950-2000, and in 1950 a single family home cost only $53,000 in 2007 dollars. Median income was around $22,000 in 2007 dollars. This equates to roughly $4800 per year in mortgage, taxes, and insurance, or almost 75% less than in the modern example. The 1950’s earner would thus have to earn 2.5 times the median income to afford the American dream budget of $55,000. If one car is excluded (since few families at the time had two cars), this ratio drops to 2.2 times median income.

In 2007, an individual would have to earn 2.7 times the median income of $26,000 to afford the American dream. This ratio is higher than it was in 1950, and most of the difference can be explained by rising home prices, particularly in the last decade. At the same time, the ratio isn’t significantly higher, and even in the 50’s the idealized American dream was only affordable by a small percentage. Why then do many today feel the 50’s and 60’s were such better times? Perhaps, as this blog suggests, it’s because we’re working harder today to afford consumer lifestyles and modern luxuries, rather than sacrificing comfort for family time.